• Portfolio Management for November 25, 2013

    With markets up, the portfolio trades are doing fine.

    I'm getting a little uneasy about IBKR, which was under selling pressure Friday, so I tightened the stops again. I could have selected the $23.95 level, just below Friday's low, but an opening down gap on Monday would slice through that stop.



    You can see below that a few new candidates are from the oil sector. This is interesting. However, I would only buy one additional position in that sector, because my goal is to own and manage a maximum of five positions.



    I believe that SNP is the most interesting stock. It was sold on Friday because they had a pipeline accident in China (as if that would ever become a liability issue in China!)

    I will buy a down-gap on Monday. I believe that the recent Iran nuclear agreement will push energy stocks to open negative on Monday, which will be a buying opportunity.



    PS: After two months of these stock-picking and portfolio management reports, it's pretty clear how I trade in the short-term. My goal may be to keep existing trades for a longer period of time, but risk management comes along and forces me to close trades. However, as long as I keep a win/loss ratio above 60% (presently at 67%) and a return/risk ratio above 3 (presently at 4.5) then it means that this particular combination of stock selection, entry point and money management policies forms a sound trading strategy.

    I rely extensively on EV for short-term tactical decisions (for example stop tightening on IBKR.) EV is also one of the criteria in the underlying stock selection process, which itself is entirely automatic.

    I realized that my life would be easier if the 5MA and the Buy/Short zones were directly displayed on the RT EV price figure. I intend to add these features in the coming weeks.