• Portfolio Management for November 19, 2013

    The markets had an "Icahn" reversal yesterday, which allowed me to enter a new long position: IBKR.



    As we can see below, IBKR pulled back deep inside my buy range, all the while forming a positive divergence intraday, so I bought. The stop is set at about 3% below the purchase price and in fact below the previous low of the past few days.



    Regarding the current trades, NOK is doing fine, but market weakness pushed me to tighten the stop in order to better protect current profits on the trade while leaving room for the stock since it is not breaking down for now.



    IQNT is in a more precarious situation. It might bounce if the market bounces, but if yesterday's general weakness is confirmed today, the stop will probably be hit and the long trade will close for a small profit.



    Even though there are other buy candidates, I've winnowed out all except AVY and QLGC as potential new long positions for today, and I will buy them only if the 20DMF shows a positive MF and if the EV pattern of these stocks is also positive.

    As you can see, after a strong earnings gap-up, AVY is now building a new base. The past few days have displayed a set of higher highs and higher lows, which probably means that my buy target will not be hit unless the stock is pulled down by generalized market weakness.





    QLGC also has formed a very tight flag pattern and has tried three time to break out to the upside. EV looks slightly positive. My buy target is also rather low and if it is hit, I am afraid the stock will break the tight flag to the downside. I am not too eager about this trade, and since I already have three long positions, I am sure to find many reasons not to enter the trade if it presents itself to me.





    Over the weekend, I completed a comparative study of the weekly stock selection trades versus the portfolio management trades. The results can be seen here:

    http://www.effectivevolume.com/conte...ction-archives
    Comments 2 Comments
    1. sesorensen 's Avatar
      Hi Pascal: If the Weekly Stock Selection model has a 5% stop loss rule we should have exited CRM by now...? thx ses
    1. Pascal's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by sesorensen View Post
      Hi Pascal: If the Weekly Stock Selection model has a 5% stop loss rule we should have exited CRM by now...? thx ses
      Indeed, the trade was exited at 9:34, which means at the open + 4 minutes. The loss is larger than -5% because of the opening down gap. You will see that the return will not move from now on.

      As a side note, I am happy to have exited IQNT at 12.31. The bounce indeed failed as the EV was predicting it.


      Pascal

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