• Portfolio Management for November 8, 2013

    I was lucky to have sold the long positions yesterday early. These long trades did not produce much profit, but at least there was some profit.

    I also entered a long SDS position early in the day and another SSO short somewhat later when the 20DMF issued its first warning of a possible short signal trigger.

    You might wonder why one SDS and one SSO and not two SDS trades. Two reasons: first, for clarity's sake, with two positions I can easily close one and leave the other one open without interfering or mistakes. The second reason is to see which one would produce better returns. In the long run, shorting inversed ETFs produces better returns, but this phase will probably last only a short while. Also, a double inversed ETF does not carry as much decay as a triple inversed ETF. Hence, shorting TNA would have been the preference of aggressive traders, which is not my style. To me, aggressiveness entails fear and possible mistakes.



    You can see below that the weekly section is suggesting only two positions. This is not enough and I would never advise anyone to invest his portfolio in only two positions. However, as stated below, it is advised to invest 50% in SDS.

    Why this advice? Because early in a short signal, you often have bounces and hence, SDS will be less volatile than shorting individual stocks. Also, most individual stocks that are short candidates are extended on the short side, which makes safe entries difficult.



    Since I already have two short positions, I can easily wait for individual short candidates to bounce into a safer short zone.



    Below are a few short candidates that I am looking at. Notice that TSN attracted money yesterday. What I am interested in is to short stocks that bounce into their short zone, but only if EV shows that the bounce is not bought.







    On the other hand, I am still keeping an eye on leading long candidates. For example, NOK and MU look interesting as a hedge or if the market has a strong QE bounce.

    Comments 4 Comments
    1. Pascal's Avatar
      I have stops on the SDS/SSO positions at the entry prices so that the current winning trades will not turn into losses if the market bounces more than the shorting prices.


      Pascal
    1. sesorensen 's Avatar
      A question from a new subscriber: what is the reason for you selected and shorted TSN when LEV turned higher and price decline? thx ses
    1. Pascal's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by sesorensen View Post
      A question from a new subscriber: what is the reason for you selected and shorted TSN when LEV turned higher and price decline? thx ses
      The daily list is built automatically before market opens. This means that yesterday's list was built with data from the close of Wednesday. At that time, the LEV pattern was still negative.

      When the weekly list rolled yesterday on a 20DMF signal chnage, it used the daily stock picks that were available.

      Both the daily and the weekly list are automatic scans. Only the portfolio management is manual.



      Pascal
    1. sesorensen 's Avatar
      Thanks for clarification.
      ses