• Portfolio Management, October 4, 2013

    Yesterday was mostly a portfolio management day as the general market was weak.
    I sold EGN and REGN but did not open any new positions, although I tried to do so, but I was either late (both lazy and afraid) or greedy (expecting lower prices.)



    REGN hit my stop. I could have held through it, and I hesitated, but with the market so weak, I chose to let it go. Do I regret the decision since the stock bounced just at the stop? Yes and no. The trade ended with a small profit instead of a possible loss if I had not respected the stop, but there is always that "I should have known better" feeling. But trading discipline is one of the elements that contributes to making money. Another key element (for me) is to abstain from leverage, because leverage causes anxiety, which leads to bad decisions.



    I sold EGN "into strength," as EV was displaying a negative divergence. Nevertheless, EGN ended up very strong. Do I regret my trade? Yes, much more than the REGN trade, even if I made more money on EGN. I regret the trade, because one of the key element in making money with leading stocks is to "give upside room" to the trade. This means to raise the stops, but to sell into weakness instead of selling into strength. This is hard to do in a general market that is pulling back.



    Other trades are doing fine. YOKU is pulling back, but we just keep the stop.



    P has also pulled back on no selling. This is where I would usually add.



    ISRG broke through its support. I will probably move the stop lower, but nothing urgent.



    There are a few interesting stocks to watch today (buy weakness).
    One of them, KR, is pulling back to its Buy Zone, while making lower highs and lower lows in a small downtrend. EV looks very strong, but this might just be due to the share buy-back program. Earnings are expected at the end of the October.





    WAG also makes for interesting analysis. With leading stocks, we often can see a high supply zone. There are two types of supply: profit taking or loss cutting. Loss cutting is very swift and accelerates the down move. However, profit taking is small: there is no urgency to take profits and most funds will keep good trades while cutting losing trades. A good trade that earns 20% is still good when it earns 10%. This is why a high supply level that is at the right of the NB is not something we should be worried about.

    For WAG, we can see that there is a large pool of "profit takers" (in blue) but they have a profit buffer before being forced to sell. The real sellers are those in red, at the very right, but for WAG, this is not a strong group. We might develop a feature on the supply figure to separate and visually identify the two groups of sellers.

    WAG is a buy, but the buy zone seems far away.







    SYNA is more interesting, but it has high intraday volatility. It is close to its buy zone, but also close to the 10% supply level, while EV looks good. This is the stock I would be willing to buy today.





    CRZO is also interesting: it broke out of its buy zone, and I do not believe it will come down today. This is not a stock I would buy now, a pull-back to the top of the Buy zone should do fine.







    PS: posting these comments takes a lot of time. In the future, I will probably limit myself to one or two stocks at a time, to point out some interesting patterns. However, I perform this analysis for all my stocks. It only takes at most one or two minutes for each stocks in the daily list. Cropping graphs and writing however takes much longer.