gapcap1
02-21-2015, 08:25 AM
pascal,
i would be interested to see what the mf into treasuries looks like in the next few sessions. i think the next great trade may be found in the long bond. irrespective of what happens with the greek situation; and regardless if equities trade higher or not, being long bonds, may be the play. while bonds are negatively correlated with stocks at the moment, as they well should be during a growth phase in the economy, they could still become positively correlated with equities, as they were through much of the u.s. qe/zirp regime as a result of ecb/qe.
with the exception of the u.s. and u.k. most of the central banks are in the easing mode i.e. ecb, boj et al, which means they're gobbling up government debt as fast as it can be issued. this of course, leaves less government debt for the rest of us. in answer to this growing shortage, corporations have seized the opportunity to issue more debt, and in this low yield environment investors have taken on more corporate credit risk than they have before. but, i don't think the corporate supply will be enough to offset a squeeze in treasuries.
the zb/es spread is also nearing support, so there is also some technical justification, as well.
i would be interested to see what the mf into treasuries looks like in the next few sessions. i think the next great trade may be found in the long bond. irrespective of what happens with the greek situation; and regardless if equities trade higher or not, being long bonds, may be the play. while bonds are negatively correlated with stocks at the moment, as they well should be during a growth phase in the economy, they could still become positively correlated with equities, as they were through much of the u.s. qe/zirp regime as a result of ecb/qe.
with the exception of the u.s. and u.k. most of the central banks are in the easing mode i.e. ecb, boj et al, which means they're gobbling up government debt as fast as it can be issued. this of course, leaves less government debt for the rest of us. in answer to this growing shortage, corporations have seized the opportunity to issue more debt, and in this low yield environment investors have taken on more corporate credit risk than they have before. but, i don't think the corporate supply will be enough to offset a squeeze in treasuries.
the zb/es spread is also nearing support, so there is also some technical justification, as well.