Watch Lists Updated 9-20-14

[Mike]

Watch lists are updated. Given what I wrote this morning I am wary that the market is starting to bake in the end of QE. The reversal yesterday seemed to be approximately timed with the BABA IPO. Using O'Neil methods we don't contemplate buying an IPO until at least 2 1/2 weeks after the IPO and then only if a tight base structure forms over that period. Otherwise we wait for a full 1st stage base to form. Look at GOOGL in 2004 for an example of a tight 3-week IPO base that was buyable as the price made a new high.

I agree with Jerry that the market would have probably already be in a bear market if it wasn't for QE. If the market really gains downward traction, will the FED reengage?

[Riskslayer]

Hi Mike,

Your point about the Fed re-engaging is a good one.

I guess we're on QE #3 or #4 depending on how one counts. For the last five years when the market faltered too much, i.e. a 20% correction or less.. some form of QE returned. Thus, making the short side trade an opportunity for the nimble only and not that lucrative.

I think for many reasons, its highly probably that QE will be back if things falter too much.

Shawn