Pascal
08-01-2014, 01:21 PM
The 20DMF is very low now: -1.3%. We have reached that sort of level only 3.1% of the time, but all corresponded to sell-offs. What is interesting is that during QE Eternity, as soon as we reached that level, we have always bounced the next day. However, between March 2009 and November 2012, these situation developed in more selling for an average of an extra 5 days before an oversold signal is issued.
A bounce today is very unlikely and stats show that Monday will also be negative.
No reason to sweat this situation. We might experience a failed bounce during lunch today.
The best returns have been when buying oversold levels. Shorting an oversold market is not a good idea.
Pascal
25270
A bounce today is very unlikely and stats show that Monday will also be negative.
No reason to sweat this situation. We might experience a failed bounce during lunch today.
The best returns have been when buying oversold levels. Shorting an oversold market is not a good idea.
Pascal
25270