Pascal
06-24-2013, 12:51 PM
1. The 20MF
The 20DMF will not issue a buy signal today. We can see that the OBOS indicator is still very low (close to -86). To issue a RT Buy signal, we would need to cross -70.1 during the day. An EOD Buy signal would trigger is we close above -72.1 The probability of any of these events to occur is very low.
However, much of the downtrend is due to the perception related to Interest rates. This is changing: you can see that T-Bonds are bought and will probably bounce in the next day. Maybe tomorrow or the day after. This could make also a general market bounce.
I am reopening a short TBT position here.
2. GDX
The long signal was canceled and the short signal is weak. Gold is also weak due to the perception that interest rates will increase (and also China weights on all the commodities.) This can change rather fast.
I would not short GDX here, as it is greatly oversold.
Regarding the 20DMF, the MF is still very weak. Hence, the best is simply to keep the short position and maybe add in strength at the end of the day or more probably tomorrow if there is a tentative bounce that fails.
All in all, I do not believe that the market will collapse. The failure of China and emerging markets will pull money back to the US market. My basic hypothesis is that interest rates will stay low because nobody can afford high interest rates. I also believe that the markets will anticipate that after the September German elections, Europe will also "ease".
These are too many opinions on one post. We'll need to have data confirmation!
18942
The 20DMF will not issue a buy signal today. We can see that the OBOS indicator is still very low (close to -86). To issue a RT Buy signal, we would need to cross -70.1 during the day. An EOD Buy signal would trigger is we close above -72.1 The probability of any of these events to occur is very low.
However, much of the downtrend is due to the perception related to Interest rates. This is changing: you can see that T-Bonds are bought and will probably bounce in the next day. Maybe tomorrow or the day after. This could make also a general market bounce.
I am reopening a short TBT position here.
2. GDX
The long signal was canceled and the short signal is weak. Gold is also weak due to the perception that interest rates will increase (and also China weights on all the commodities.) This can change rather fast.
I would not short GDX here, as it is greatly oversold.
Regarding the 20DMF, the MF is still very weak. Hence, the best is simply to keep the short position and maybe add in strength at the end of the day or more probably tomorrow if there is a tentative bounce that fails.
All in all, I do not believe that the market will collapse. The failure of China and emerging markets will pull money back to the US market. My basic hypothesis is that interest rates will stay low because nobody can afford high interest rates. I also believe that the markets will anticipate that after the September German elections, Europe will also "ease".
These are too many opinions on one post. We'll need to have data confirmation!
18942