Jerry Samet
06-06-2013, 08:13 PM
After a meaningful sell off in the market you want to watch the quality of the bounce to see which way the market is likely to go. A good strong bounce can mean that the worst is over. The rebound we got today was less than impressive. The major averages had a pretty good loss going early in the session until a rally started about half way through the day and continued into the close. The major averages finished at their highs of the day, but volume was lower across the board. This was a clear lack of conviction by large investors. Leading stocks rebounded as well with the leaders index rising 2.22% on slightly higher and well above average volume. Despite today’s gains the index is still well into a downtrend and the price action is being controlled by a declining 9dma. Both the major averages and quality stocks are clearly in downtrends. The SPY tagged it’s 50dma but held it while the NYA rallied back up to it’s 50dma but couldn’t get back above it. Today’s action doesn’t seem to add a lot to the bullish case. Jerry