Timothy Clontz
06-02-2013, 12:41 PM
Sector Model XLB 3.28%
Large Portfolio Date Return Days
BBRY 7/16/2012 92.55% 321
CAJ 9/25/2012 -0.35% 250
BOKF 2/4/2013 16.81% 118
SWM 2/12/2013 34.51% 110
MWW 4/11/2013 23.44% 52
ABX 4/11/2013 -12.73% 52
TPX 4/22/2013 -8.11% 41
TTM 5/6/2013 3.00% 27
DLB 5/13/2013 2.01% 20
GMCR 5/24/2013 0.27% 9
S&P Annualized 10.07%
Sector Model Annualized 25.10%
Large Portfolio Annualized 32.64%
From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2013/06/06022013-bubble-farm.html
It’s been a month now since there was a legitimate rotation on the model. I cheated for a couple of weeks, rotating where I could, but the industries are remaining in lock-step with each other.
Most folks think of the market as either a bull or a bear. Some would add “sideways” as a type of market. But there is another kind: bubble.
Bubbles are weird. They don’t have to make any sense, and if they made sense they wouldn’t be a bubble.
In a bubble either a sector or industry will just keep going in one direction.
But there is no sector or industry to this bubble.
This bubble is the entire market.
Has it popped?
It’s a bubble: you can’t tell when it’s popped until it’s too late.
In any case, there isn’t any meaningful rotation going on yet. No doubt in a sudden reversal I’ll get another case of 52 card pickup like I did back in September:
http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2012/09/09242012-major-rebalancing-in-morning.html
That was right at a top, by the way.
And no, you can’t use that for market timing. It’s one thing to say, “at tops I usually get some heavy rotation”, but quite a different thing to say, “at heavy rotation I usually see a top.” The first statement can be true and the second completely false.
My sector model is still mildly bullish, but weakening.
I’ve seen some sophisticated analysis out there arguing for an imminent collapse. My models aren’t sensitive enough for that kind of thing. The worst part for me is that my stocks move BEFORE the market, so even if I could anticipate market moves before the market actually moved, it would STILL be too late for me.
So, it doesn’t really do me much good to even try.
When it hits, it will hit.
Until then, bubbles.
My three year old has a little bath toy that sings a song about a “bubble farm.”
Of course he doesn’t get the words exactly right and he sings about the “bubble fart.”
Maybe he’s on to something…
Tim
Large Portfolio Date Return Days
BBRY 7/16/2012 92.55% 321
CAJ 9/25/2012 -0.35% 250
BOKF 2/4/2013 16.81% 118
SWM 2/12/2013 34.51% 110
MWW 4/11/2013 23.44% 52
ABX 4/11/2013 -12.73% 52
TPX 4/22/2013 -8.11% 41
TTM 5/6/2013 3.00% 27
DLB 5/13/2013 2.01% 20
GMCR 5/24/2013 0.27% 9
S&P Annualized 10.07%
Sector Model Annualized 25.10%
Large Portfolio Annualized 32.64%
From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2013/06/06022013-bubble-farm.html
It’s been a month now since there was a legitimate rotation on the model. I cheated for a couple of weeks, rotating where I could, but the industries are remaining in lock-step with each other.
Most folks think of the market as either a bull or a bear. Some would add “sideways” as a type of market. But there is another kind: bubble.
Bubbles are weird. They don’t have to make any sense, and if they made sense they wouldn’t be a bubble.
In a bubble either a sector or industry will just keep going in one direction.
But there is no sector or industry to this bubble.
This bubble is the entire market.
Has it popped?
It’s a bubble: you can’t tell when it’s popped until it’s too late.
In any case, there isn’t any meaningful rotation going on yet. No doubt in a sudden reversal I’ll get another case of 52 card pickup like I did back in September:
http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2012/09/09242012-major-rebalancing-in-morning.html
That was right at a top, by the way.
And no, you can’t use that for market timing. It’s one thing to say, “at tops I usually get some heavy rotation”, but quite a different thing to say, “at heavy rotation I usually see a top.” The first statement can be true and the second completely false.
My sector model is still mildly bullish, but weakening.
I’ve seen some sophisticated analysis out there arguing for an imminent collapse. My models aren’t sensitive enough for that kind of thing. The worst part for me is that my stocks move BEFORE the market, so even if I could anticipate market moves before the market actually moved, it would STILL be too late for me.
So, it doesn’t really do me much good to even try.
When it hits, it will hit.
Until then, bubbles.
My three year old has a little bath toy that sings a song about a “bubble farm.”
Of course he doesn’t get the words exactly right and he sings about the “bubble fart.”
Maybe he’s on to something…
Tim