Models

[Pascal]

As you have noticed, the 20DMF was bullish all day long and will probably close its short position. This means that traders will be free to be in cash, long or short.

The GDX Model moved long yesterday. The daily stats pointed this morning to a long day-trade and gold itself is bouncing. GDX is up more than 5% today. If you did not open a long position but wish to do so, you need to wait for a pull-back.


Pascal

[Timothy Clontz]

Very difficult today guessing whether the close would end the position or not.

I covered at 3:59...

Oh well. I had a happier mistake from my premature entry into GDX the other day...

Amazing how it just squeaks around the boundary lately.

[Pascal]

Very difficult today guessing whether the close would end the position or not.

I covered at 3:59...

Oh well. I had a happier mistake from my premature entry into GDX the other day...

Amazing how it just squeaks around the boundary lately.

This is indeed really annoying, but there is no possible "fix". At some point, we need to take a decision. It is also why we set-up the signal confidence calculations: so that we can take a decision.

As soon as the confidence level reaches 80%, then the signal is confirmed. Yesterday, the confidence level was around 60%, but the signal could never get confirmed.


Pascal

[Timothy Clontz]

Yes, the confidence level is indeed extremely helpful. No way to get it perfect, but estimating how "good" the estimate is (meta-estimation?) was rather inspired. :)

[Pascal]

The 20DMF finally closed its short position in a market that definitively looks bullish.

Since oil/copper/gold are all going up, I suspect that the Japanese currency debasement boosted the carry-trade activities, which are taking all the financial instruments over: everything goes up!

Can we finally get that inflation that all the central banks are trying hard to create? or will it be only concentrating on commodities with wages staying low.


Pascal

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