A few Futures figures

[Pascal]

It seems that Corn/Oil are under pressure.

Silver is bought and gold is not heavily sold.

T_Bonds are also bought.


Pascal

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[davidallison@gmail.com]

This from 'Thackray Market Letter' a free newletter. They manange a Canadian 'Horizon' product on the TSX, ticker HAC. They use technical, seasonal and fundamental information to enter trades. I was thinking about Pascal's comments on silver. If anyone is interested below are the comments from the letter a couple days back. Dave

"Silver
Get ready for the best seasonal period for silver. Silver has performed very well from a seasonal basis. It outperformed the S&P 500 in September and then once again in November. Both of these time periods are positive seasonal periods for the precious metal. Looking at the graph of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), it is evident that silver started its outperformance compared to the S&P 500, in July. It even outperformed Gold in this time period. This is not typically the case as gold is the best choice in the summer months. When silver outperforms it is bullish for the precious metals market. As a matter of note, HAC did very well overweighting gold starting in July. Towards the end of November silver started to correct, which is typical at that time. The good news is that the best period for silver is on our doorstep (January to March). From January 1st to March 31st, for the years 1984 to 2011, silver produced an average gain of 6.9% and was positive 75% of the time. Currently, silver is in a minor correction. If the Full Stochastic Oscillator drops below 20 level and then rebounds above this level, an early entry signal would be triggered. If this does not occur investors should consider entering into a silver position sometime after December 20th and before December 31st, depending on silver’s technical strength at the time."

[Pascal]

Thank you Dave.

It is most interesting to read analysis made by others.
I'd wish to be able to see more of these.

I am now busy going into the gold data to find a way to locate the "push backs" as buying opportunities.
I'll post when I come up with a set of rules, and now that the models alert is functionning, we might add some specific alerts too on Gold/Silver for example.


Pascal

[xr-3609]

Pascal,
Gold & Silver alerts would be great!
Greg

Article 12/3/2012 from FinanceAndEconomics.org http://www.financeandeconomics.org/the-coming-silver-price-eruption/

"On this evidence, the bullion banks which are short in the silver market are potentially in serious trouble, unless somewhere there is a pot of physical silver they can dip into. There isn’t, if we assume that iShares Silver Trust’s 315 million ounces is unavailable. There is no other identifiable source of silver, other perhaps than some producer supply, and there is anecdotal evidence that on every dip, cash silver migrates from West to East, confirmed by silver being constantly in backwardation.

The odds now favour a substantial bear squeeze. And as the managed funds which lost money on their shorts in June-July sniff sweet revenge, this could rapidly escalate. At the moment, every dollar move upwards in the silver price costs the shorts nearly half a billion dollars. And there is no way it can be covered, because the cash silver simply does not exist.

When the shorts finally run for cover, the effect on the silver price is going to be spectacular."

[xr-3609]

Also from another Article on 12/10/2012: http://www.financeandeconomics.org/gold-futures-market-heading-for-crisis/

"The silver does not exist to cover these short positions, and it will take very little further buying to set off a crisis in this important market. In the case of gold, there have always been central banks with physical bullion available to ease market shortages, but so far as we are aware the strategic silver stockpiles of previous decades are exhausted. There is therefore no price at which these shorts can be closed."

And later.....

"On this evidence, and assuming the trend continues, there will shortly come a time where NYMEX will be forced to declare force majeure in this market, which they can do under their rule book. The consequences of this extreme action could well be destabilising not only for the price and demand for silver but also disruptive for gold.

Therefore, we must add the breakdown of precious metals markets to the list of systemic dangers we face in the New Year."

Happy New Year!
greg

[davidallison@gmail.com]

This from 'Thackray Market Letter' a free newletter. They manange a Canadian 'Horizon' product on the TSX, ticker HAC. They use technical, seasonal and fundamental information to enter trades. I was thinking about Pascal's comments on silver. If anyone is interested below are the comments from the letter a couple days back. Dave

"Silver
Get ready for the best seasonal period for silver. Silver has performed very well from a seasonal basis. It outperformed the S&P 500 in September and then once again in November. Both of these time periods are positive seasonal periods for the precious metal. Looking at the graph of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), it is evident that silver started its outperformance compared to the S&P 500, in July. It even outperformed Gold in this time period. This is not typically the case as gold is the best choice in the summer months. When silver outperforms it is bullish for the precious metals market. As a matter of note, HAC did very well overweighting gold starting in July. Towards the end of November silver started to correct, which is typical at that time. The good news is that the best period for silver is on our doorstep (January to March). From January 1st to March 31st, for the years 1984 to 2011, silver produced an average gain of 6.9% and was positive 75% of the time. Currently, silver is in a minor correction. If the Full Stochastic Oscillator drops below 20 level and then rebounds above this level, an early entry signal would be triggered. If this does not occur investors should consider entering into a silver position sometime after December 20th and before December 31st, depending on silver’s technical strength at the time."


It looks to me like this trade could be lining itself up nicely. It certainly was a crazy day for gold and silver, but I was thinking of unloading some of my FCX (a great call Pascal!) and picking up some HZU.TO on the TSX. Perhaps a bounce off the SLV 200 dma tomorrow, would be a good entry time, if it gets to that. It would be a double bottom as well if held. Perhaps more conservative would be to wait for a rebound out of the 20 level of the Full Stochastic Oscillator as suggested.With the RT GDX closing in a buy mode it sure is easy to get whippsawed in this market, but I can't help but think today was just a glitch in the big picture. Of course I've been wrong many times in the past. :-) dave

[adam ali]

Given the 14-month downward channel in place, the rough $1665—1645 area becomes rather important support. That range shows 5 unrelated technical models/indicators appear in it, including the TD Propulsion Exhaustion level at $1664, the 200-day moving average at $1663, the TD Risk level associated to the -13 count at $1659, the uptrend line from the last low in May before the rally ensued at $1649, and the TDST line at $1647.

We think the gold bulls are gonna want to see these support levels hold.