Timothy Clontz
10-28-2012, 12:14 AM
Small Portfolio XLF & IAU 16.99%
Position Date Return Days
DECK 6/15/2012 -38.57% 134
RIMM 7/16/2012 4.41% 103
OKE 9/25/2012 -1.40% 32
SEAC 9/25/2012 10.04% 32
CAJ 9/25/2012 -6.16% 32
DDAIF 9/25/2012 -8.40% 32
SSD 9/25/2012 -0.30% 32
AM 9/25/2012 16.51% 32
NSC 10/8/2012 -6.17% 19
WMK 10/22/2012 0.17% 5
S&P Annualized 3.52%
Small Portfolio Annualized 12.05%
Large Portfolio Annualized 15.13%
From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2012/10/10282012-rotation-selling-am-buying-cfi.html
Scheduled rotation: selling AM; buying CFI.
AM is in the Publishing industry, and CFI is in the Furniture industry. Although AM has been a profitable trade, and may become more profitable still, it’s also a great opportunity for profit taking and repositioning into a technically stronger industry.
The move into Furniture is related to the SSD position in the Building industry. More indication that the efforts of Bernanke to back mortgage related securities are gaining traction.
The CFI position also represents the first stock selection using the new adaptive fundamental model, which will gradually fine tune the fundamentals that are most synergistic with the technical environment targeted by the Mousetrap.
The first adaptation is to add an examination of long term Growth Persistence. A stock with seemingly good fundamentals has less of a chance of being a value trap if it has persistent earnings growth. That’s not fool-proof, of course, since of all the stocks on the NYSE, DECK is considered the best value by the model. That MAY be true NOW, but it was certainly something of a value trap when I entered the position five months ago.
In any case, the adaptive model will slowly update the fundamental selection process until it reaches a (hopefully more profitable) equilibrium. Although the model is outperforming the S&P by an 11-12% annualized rate, I think it can do even better with these steady adjustments.
Time will tell.
Tim
Position Date Return Days
DECK 6/15/2012 -38.57% 134
RIMM 7/16/2012 4.41% 103
OKE 9/25/2012 -1.40% 32
SEAC 9/25/2012 10.04% 32
CAJ 9/25/2012 -6.16% 32
DDAIF 9/25/2012 -8.40% 32
SSD 9/25/2012 -0.30% 32
AM 9/25/2012 16.51% 32
NSC 10/8/2012 -6.17% 19
WMK 10/22/2012 0.17% 5
S&P Annualized 3.52%
Small Portfolio Annualized 12.05%
Large Portfolio Annualized 15.13%
From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2012/10/10282012-rotation-selling-am-buying-cfi.html
Scheduled rotation: selling AM; buying CFI.
AM is in the Publishing industry, and CFI is in the Furniture industry. Although AM has been a profitable trade, and may become more profitable still, it’s also a great opportunity for profit taking and repositioning into a technically stronger industry.
The move into Furniture is related to the SSD position in the Building industry. More indication that the efforts of Bernanke to back mortgage related securities are gaining traction.
The CFI position also represents the first stock selection using the new adaptive fundamental model, which will gradually fine tune the fundamentals that are most synergistic with the technical environment targeted by the Mousetrap.
The first adaptation is to add an examination of long term Growth Persistence. A stock with seemingly good fundamentals has less of a chance of being a value trap if it has persistent earnings growth. That’s not fool-proof, of course, since of all the stocks on the NYSE, DECK is considered the best value by the model. That MAY be true NOW, but it was certainly something of a value trap when I entered the position five months ago.
In any case, the adaptive model will slowly update the fundamental selection process until it reaches a (hopefully more profitable) equilibrium. Although the model is outperforming the S&P by an 11-12% annualized rate, I think it can do even better with these steady adjustments.
Time will tell.
Tim