Timothy Clontz
10-14-2012, 10:17 AM
Small Portfolio XLF & IAU 18.40%
Position Date Return Days
DECK 6/15/2012 -24.07% 121
RIMM 7/16/2012 7.59% 90
OKE 9/25/2012 -0.02% 19
SEAC 9/25/2012 1.59% 19
CAJ 9/25/2012 -9.10% 19
DDAIF 9/25/2012 -4.63% 19
SSD 9/25/2012 -4.54% 19
AF 9/25/2012 -1.91% 19
AM 9/25/2012 15.83% 19
NSC 10/8/2012 0.57% 6
S&P Annualized 4.51%
Small Portfolio Annualized 13.39%
Large Portfolio Annualized 16.82%
From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2012/10/10142012-when-no-opinion-is-opinion.html
There are no scheduled rotations going into the week. Nice boring hiatus for a potential transition in the markets.
The market has very obviously stalled, but the question is what it will do next. At the risk of stating the obvious – I don’t know. But I want to emphasize that last phrase, because I don’t even have an opinion.
Since people tend to forget when they are wrong and kick themselves for not acting when they are right, they very urgently want to have an opinion. Any opinion.
Well, I don’t have one. The sector configuration is long term bearish, intermediate term bullish, and short term mixed. Breadth and funds flow are turning down, but only in sync with the market. It’s merely confirmed that the market had acted in an orderly fashion in its recent stall.
I do think we are at an inflection point, but it’s too early to tell one way or the other. This is no problem for the Mousetrap, since it doesn’t time. But market timers are in a tricky spot. Tight stops should be called for in either direction, but whipsawing could wipe out any recent gains in a matter of days.
Tim
Position Date Return Days
DECK 6/15/2012 -24.07% 121
RIMM 7/16/2012 7.59% 90
OKE 9/25/2012 -0.02% 19
SEAC 9/25/2012 1.59% 19
CAJ 9/25/2012 -9.10% 19
DDAIF 9/25/2012 -4.63% 19
SSD 9/25/2012 -4.54% 19
AF 9/25/2012 -1.91% 19
AM 9/25/2012 15.83% 19
NSC 10/8/2012 0.57% 6
S&P Annualized 4.51%
Small Portfolio Annualized 13.39%
Large Portfolio Annualized 16.82%
From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2012/10/10142012-when-no-opinion-is-opinion.html
There are no scheduled rotations going into the week. Nice boring hiatus for a potential transition in the markets.
The market has very obviously stalled, but the question is what it will do next. At the risk of stating the obvious – I don’t know. But I want to emphasize that last phrase, because I don’t even have an opinion.
Since people tend to forget when they are wrong and kick themselves for not acting when they are right, they very urgently want to have an opinion. Any opinion.
Well, I don’t have one. The sector configuration is long term bearish, intermediate term bullish, and short term mixed. Breadth and funds flow are turning down, but only in sync with the market. It’s merely confirmed that the market had acted in an orderly fashion in its recent stall.
I do think we are at an inflection point, but it’s too early to tell one way or the other. This is no problem for the Mousetrap, since it doesn’t time. But market timers are in a tricky spot. Tight stops should be called for in either direction, but whipsawing could wipe out any recent gains in a matter of days.
Tim