20DMF

[Pascal]

Today's pattern looks like the pattern of the previous days.
If the S&P500 cannot make a new high and if the MF pushes back down then this will be a sign of weakness (another one).

On the other hand, the GDX MF is rather strong and going toward the Overbought level.


Pascal

15439

15440

[Adriano]

Pascal,

Yesterday the PM RT MF briefly touched 1.35 and then reversed. How do you consider that, also for the stats?

1 Nothing at all, as it has to go above 1.35 (and possibly reverse back below it).

2 It covered the Buy signal but didn't trigger a Short signal.

3 It covered the Buy signal and triggered a Short signal.

I believe that technically it's 1 (unfortunately), but I'm not sure.

Thank you.

[Pascal]

Pascal,

Yesterday the PM RT MF briefly touched 1.35 and then reversed. How do you consider that, also for the stats?

1 Nothing at all, as it has to go above 1.35 (and possibly reverse back below it).

2 It covered the Buy signal but didn't trigger a Short signal.

3 It covered the Buy signal and triggered a Short signal.

I believe that technically it's 1 (unfortunately), but I'm not sure.

Thank you.

As a matter of fact, the max value was 1.3477%. Therefore, technically, we did not cross over the 1.35%.
If we had crossed over and then back below it, then the RT MF would have turned to cash, because the volatility level is lower than the limit for short trades.

You will note that the GDX Robot is in cash, because the trailing stop was hit when the KCG trading Algo turned mad about 10 days ago. On the other hand, the Short/Long settings stats states that IF the GDX MF turns short, then the Robot will also go short.

The positive point about gold is that we are entering into the seasonally positive period, with a lot of QE hopes and talks. This is what is supporting the price of the miners. However, increasing energy costs are a big negative.



Pascal

15482

[Adriano]

Thank you for the explanation. Which means that a displayed value of 1.35 is actually between 1.3451 and 1.3550, right? If that's the case, wouldn't be better not to round it, like it's still 1.34 until it's 1.3499? Or display more digits? But perhaps you can't control that at the moment, I don't know...

Yesterday the PM MF went higher than 1.35, at 11.17, and then briefly lower, at 11.19 and again at 11.21, so the RT bot is in cash, correct? I'm just asking for a confirmation.

Thank you.

Adriano

[Pascal]

I was indeed expecting this question.
I'll write a specific article about it.


Pascal

[DJones]

So what is the current status of the RT GDX bot? Tks.

[Adriano]

Cash:
http://www.effectivevolume.com/content.php?1340-GDX-Comments-for-August-17-2012

[DJones]

So what does "Bought Overbought" mean on the RT status indicator? Tks

[Pascal]

Bought Overbought means that the protection level is raised to the overbought level. In other words, when the signal crosses below the Overbought level, then the model is in sell or short mode depending on the volatility.

Today, with a low volatility, the model is in sell mode when crossing below the 1.35% level.



Pascal

[DJones]

Bought Overbought means that the protection level is raised to the overbought level. In other words, when the signal crosses below the Overbought level, then the model is in sell or short mode depending on the volatility.
Today, with a low volatility, the model is in sell mode when crossing below the 1.35% level.
Pascal

Doesn't that imply that the model is long and waiting for a crossover to close? What am I missing here?

[Pascal]

The RT model had a whipsawing cross over yesterday.

The EOD model did not have a cross over yet.


Pascal

[DJones]

The RT model had a whipsawing cross over yesterday.
The EOD model did not have a cross over yet.
Pascal

Pascal
Sorry for the continual questions on this. I've been on vacation, and clearly it must have been a good one because I have apparently forgotten how to look at the RT page or am totally confused now that I'm back.

The RT Bot status bar says "Bought Overbought" which I now understand means this: the "Overbought" means that the protection level is the overbought level, and when the MF drops below that the model will go to "sell or short mode". To me that implies the model is long now. But as I understand it, neither the EOD GDX model or the RT GDX bot are currently long. So I don't know how to look at the status bar and determine whether the bot is long or short.

Does the status bar go with the RT bot - or is it describing current status of the EOD model?

I'd like to be sure I'm interpreting the status bar correctly - but whichever it is it appears to me to be saying long when neither RT or EOD are currently long.

Tks

[Pascal]

The model that has been back-tested is an EOD model.

However, we now have a RT signal. But, until we have all the data to do a full back-test of the RT model, we will stick with the EOD. The messages that you see on the RT model are reset at the open every day, in order to follow the status of the EOD model. The EOD model was "Bought Oversold" at the close of yesterday. Hence, the RT model looks at a possible change of this situation. The EOD model is still in its long trade, while the RT model is now in cash.



Pascal

[DJones]

The model that has been back-tested is an EOD model.
However, we now have a RT signal. But, until we have all the data to do a full back-test of the RT model, we will stick with the EOD. The messages that you see on the RT model are reset at the open every day, in order to follow the status of the EOD model. The EOD model was "Bought Oversold" at the close of yesterday. Hence, the RT model looks at a possible change of this situation. The EOD model is still in its long trade, while the RT model is now in cash.
Pascal

Thanks...I see now that something did change while I was away. Apparently now you are distinguishing on the site's GDX Robot page between two different status: "The GDX MF has been in buy mode since 7/11/2012." and "The robot is in cash."

So I'm clear...GDX MF is the EOD model, and "the robot" is the RT model?

Or does "The robot is in cash" mean that you're recommending to ignore the GDX MF for the EOD model and stay in cash, even though technically the EOD "is in buy mode."

I totally missed the change...and I've been looking each morning and stopping when I saw "the robot is in cash" to understand the EOD model was in cash and there was no new position advised.

[Pascal]

It is indeed almost that, but not quite so:

Th GDX Robot uses the EOD GDX MF model to have the direction of the trade.
It then calculates the LT/ST statistics each day and on that base decides to enter a trade or not.
The entry is at the open, but the GDX Robot uses a trailing stop.
On its long trade, the GDX Robot hit its trailing stop when the KCG trading Algo went wild about 10 days ago.

Besides the EOD model, we have now an image of the RT GDX MF system. The RT model is identical to the EOD model, but the RT model has a life on its own, because it will hit a trigger level earlier than the EOD model.

So to repeat: the GDX Robot only considers the EOD model. It would still be long today is the Knight Algo did not have sent wrong trades for 30 minutes some time ago.


Pascal