Accumulation Distribution

[brrim]

Here are updated Accumulation-Distribution gifs.
The RUT A-D remains stronger than the NDX and All Securities.
For the RUT A&B>D&E since 6/18.
B>C since 6/19.
B>D since 6/18.
%B >< 0.5 consistently > 0.5 since 6/14.
Friday's thrust pushed % >< 20 dma to 81.86%, the highest point in the rally.% >< 50 dma moved to 67.28%, also the highest point.

Daily NH-NL spiked Friday on the NYSE and NASDAQ.

The internal accumulation distribution of the indices is strong, particularly the RUT, suggesting we are going higher and that this is the real deal.
My interpretation echoes Pascal's statement in his commentary "a pull-back on Monday should probably be bought right away."
Best regards,
Robert

[brrim]

Accumulation Distribution remains stronger for the RUT than the NDX and the RUT structure looks healthy with %A&B 74.55% and D&E 8.15%. Accum C is 17.29%.
Friday the NDX got whacked with %A dropping from 21% to 3% with some of that change bypassing B and going directly to C which jumped from 20 to 28%.
NDX % close >< 9 dma fell from 86%-14% to 41%-59%.
NDX % close >< 20 dma went from 75%-25% to 50%-50%.
NDX % close >< 50 dma went from 63%-37% to 49%-51%.
The net overall is that the NDX fell from a bullish position to a neutral 50-50 yellow position.
It is hard to know what this 1 day change means in an index that has been weaker in general than the RUT. Is it a one day phenomenon and we bounce or is it a signal of more general impending market weakness? Time will tell.
Best regards,
Robert

[brrim]

The RUT remains stronger than the NDX and All Securities with regard to A-D.
RUT
10.42% 52.97% 24.33% 10.19% 2.10%
NDX
5.00% 28.00% 36.00% 24.00% 7.00%
All Securities
8.16% 44.90% 30.06% 14.16% 2.72%

The same is true with regard to % >< 20 and 50 dma.
20 dma
RUT 68.45% 31.55%
NDX 27.00% 73.00%
All Securities 60.35% 39.65%

50 dma
RUT 72.58% 27.42%
NDX 37.00% 63.00%
All Securities 63.00% 37.00%

The RUT has formed a very large cup and handle with the left lip of the cup at the 4/27 high of 826.05 and the right lip on 7/3/12 818.49 which is the top of the handle currently being formed.
Within this large cup is a smaller one with the left lip at the 5/29 high of 778.77 and a high handle with the 6/19 high of 789.51. The breakout from this structure came on 6/29. On Thursday there was a "second chance" for those missing the breakout as Thursday's low was 778.54 , the high of the left lip of the smaller cup. The handle currently being formed can also be seen as a right shoulder for an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
The A-D, % close and price patterns for the RUT all have a bullish appearance. The downside risk is small as we should not break the 7/12 low of 778.54 if the bullish scenario is to play out. This is a 2.8% risk from Friday's close.

Best regards,
Robert

[brrim]

The RUT AD weakened this week.
Accumulation A peaked on 7/5 at 27.72%. It is now 7.62%.
RUT C was 16.83% on 7/5. It is now 25.91%.
RUT %B(% >< 0.5 Bollinger Band) inverted for the 1st time since 6/8. It is 44.78%-55.22%.
RUT % >< 20 dma is 39.45% vs 60.55%. Last Friday it was 68.45% vs 31.55%.
NH-NL 29-22. Last week 136-8.

All of this suggests potential weakness for the RUT this week.
Best regards,
Robert

[brrim]

Despite the market bounce today the RUT A-D has really deteriorated this week.
C is the largest group at 40.64% up from 25.91% last Friday.
D has gone from 12.66% to 18.78%.
E is > A 4.81% vs 3.27%.
It hasn't fallen apart yet, but it is headed in that direction.

Best regards,
Robert1527715278

[brrim]

Looking at the RUT A-D over the last week.
IWM up 0.49%
A 7.62% to 3.12%
B 50% to 31.61%
C 25.91% to 41.32%
D 12.66% to 18.48%
E 3.81 to 5.47%

The most recent IWM high was on 7/5 at 81.84.
A peaked on 7/5 at 27.72%
B peaked on 7/10 at 57.09%.

For the NDX.
QQQ up 0.98%.
A 3% to 12%
B 40% to 32%
C 31% to 32%
D 21% to 19%
E 5% to 5%

The recent QQQ high was 65.31 on 7/19.
A peaked on 7/5 at 21%.
B peaked on 7/6 at 59%.

The deterioration in the RUT A-D this past week is impressive particularly in light of the rally.
The NDX A-D was more stable and there was a pop in A at the end of the week.
Both indices are demonstrating significant A-D divergence with price, making the end of week rally very suspect from my perspective. Ultimately price will reflect these A-D changes.

Best regards,
Robert

[brrim]

Yesterday the RUT rallied 2.59% and the NDX 1.92%. For the week the RUT was down 0.94% and the NDX up 1.09%.
Accumulation distribution continues to show an unhealthy market, worse for the RUT than the NDX.

RUT
D is the maximum group at 33.89% up from 18.48% last week. Note the angle of ascent on the 2D graph.
E rose from 5.47% to 9.93% and is greater than A at 1.90% which fell from 3.12% last week .
D&E are at 43.82% up from 23.95% and above A&B at 22.89% which fell from 34.73% last week.

NDX
C is the maximum group at 36% mildly increased from 32% last week.
E jumped from 5% to 9% and is greater than A at 3% which fell from 12% last week.
D&E are 32% up from 24% and equal to A&B at 32%. A&B fell from 44% last week.

The divergence between price and accumulation distribution continues to deteriorate. It is unlikely that it will end well.

Best regards,
Robert

[asomani]

Thanks Robert.

Relevant read:
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/8/3/strong-market-weak-breadth.html

This thread may be a better fit in the "Value In Time" section of the forum.