Iwm ?

[manucastle]

IWM up over 2% with, if I read it correctly, neutral MF ?

Hard to understand ?

(From Tradestation 9.5 million shares traded close to the close) ?

Anybody an explanation for this ?

Trev

[Timothy Clontz]

This looks like an exhaustion spike where all the retail investors buy into the idea the trend will last.

In other words, "Bull Trap."

[nickola.pazderic]

every time a short covers and the price goes pop, an angel gets his/her wings...


(cultural referent: Its a Wonderful Life)

[Timothy Clontz]

Mr. Potter is always lurking...

[lisa]

pascal,

there seems to be a big divergence between MF and the price of IWM on the RT screen. also, there is a wedge setting up on the 5d MF. so i guess my questions are, doesn't it look like the market will be heading down? and do you pay any attention to or give any weight to patterns on the MF?

thanks,
lisa

[Pascal]

pascal,

there seems to be a big divergence between MF and the price of IWM on the RT screen. also, there is a wedge setting up on the 5d MF. so i guess my questions are, doesn't it look like the market will be heading down? and do you pay any attention to or give any weight to patterns on the MF?

thanks,
lisa

You are right Lisa. The MF has been weak in the past days. This is why I am keeping (a discretionary and now underwater ) short position on the S&P500 (SDS bought at 17.40. SPY is weaker than IWM). However, the 20DMF needs to cross below "0" in order to provide a more reliable short signal than what a mere divergence can provide.

Type in "20" days in the RT figure and you will see the big picture of when the money stopped to move in.


Pascal

[lisa]

thanks, pascal. very enlightening though frustrating, right? at least your position in SCO, assuming you took one, should be doing well.

lisa

[EB]

Wow, it really is a 20 day money flow:

12593

[Billy]

Wow, it really is a 20 day money flow:

12593

Bob,

You can actually change the selected date and see the 20 days graph for each date.
For example 20-day to 1/25/12
Billy
12599

[EB]

Bob,

You can actually change the selected date and see the 20 days graph for each date.
For example 20-day to 1/25/12
Billy
12599

Great to know. It is a fantastic reference tool during the day.

[nickola.pazderic]

Something that I'll keep in mind going forward are the simple indicators. The 20/50 DMA cross occurred on 12/21/11, and I paid it no heed.

12617

Also, IWM moved decisively above the 20 period moving average on the monthly chart recently:

12618

Both of these indicators are very useful for long-only retirement-type accounts.

And lastly, we have an inverse H & S:

12619

I would expect some consolidation. When the 10 DMA or 20 DMA catches up, one might enter.

[manucastle]

Something that I'll keep in mind going forward are the simple indicators. The 20/50 DMA cross occurred on 12/21/11, and I paid it no heed.

12617

Also, IWM moved decisively above the 20 period moving average on the monthly chart recently:

12618

Both of these indicators are very useful for long-only retirement-type accounts.

And lastly, we have an inverse H & S:

12619

I would expect some consolidation. When the 10 DMA or 20 DMA catches up, one might enter.

Hi Nickola,

Sorry to report but I have been folowing these type of simple indicators for 2 decades and they never added anything to my returns.

This game is not as easy as that IMHO.

Trev:O)

[nickola.pazderic]

Hi Trev--

I respect your experience and am very glad you're in the robot trades, too.

I don't doubt that such indicators have their problems; but, I need to employ them because they have worked for me previously.

Moreover, I think I took the promise of the robots too literally and more or less stopped thinking about the investment environment. This condition is much more dangerous than a stubborn robot.

IMHO,

;)