Mike
10-13-2011, 03:48 PM
The follow-through day yesterday was on the thinest of ice, the NYSE composite up 1.4% on volume higher than the day before. Jerry's leader index showing distribution on a FTD was ominous and the CANSLIM oriented stocks are not well positioned with constructive bases for an advance. But what do we have that is positive?
I have mentioned that we are in a bullish time of year. Since October 1994 there have been 77 follow through days not including yesterday. Of these FTDs here is the by month success rate of these leading to a significant rally (9-10% or more). The data is sparse with just 77 occurances, to issustrate how sparse, the second number in each row is the number of FTDs that occured in that month.
Jan 50%, 4
Feb 0%, 5
Mar 50%, 10
Apr 43%, 7
May 29%, 7
Jun 17%, 6
Jul 0%, 3
Aug 50%, 10
Sep 33%, 6
Oct 50%, 8
Nov 0%, 4
Dec 20%, 5
An October FTD is amongst the best months for a successful rally to begin.
I have mentioned that we are in a bullish time of year. Since October 1994 there have been 77 follow through days not including yesterday. Of these FTDs here is the by month success rate of these leading to a significant rally (9-10% or more). The data is sparse with just 77 occurances, to issustrate how sparse, the second number in each row is the number of FTDs that occured in that month.
Jan 50%, 4
Feb 0%, 5
Mar 50%, 10
Apr 43%, 7
May 29%, 7
Jun 17%, 6
Jul 0%, 3
Aug 50%, 10
Sep 33%, 6
Oct 50%, 8
Nov 0%, 4
Dec 20%, 5
An October FTD is amongst the best months for a successful rally to begin.