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Mike
09-28-2011, 09:29 AM
Today is rally attempt day 4. In CANSLIM methods we define a follow through day as a significant advance on one of the major indices (S&P, NASDAQ, NYSE Composite) on volume higher than the day before. We ignore the first three days of a rally attempt because these days are full of short covering that masks true buying pressure. I believe that we are in a bear market and the statistics of bear market rallies are pretty grim yet some of them succeed very well. If the leadership were in good shape and acting well I could believe in the current set up. Yesterday I wrote some mixed messages as to whether the S&P triangle apex pattern could resolve to the upside. At any rate, if we do see a follow through day in the coming period, I treat the occurance as an automatic cover your short positions indicator. I will often enter a long position if there is a leading stock breaking out of a sound pattern. Jerry's index is as good as any place to look for a leading stock. His index are the following stocks:
AAPL, ALXN, AMZN, ATHN, AZO, BIDU, BVN, CERN, CMG, DLTR, DMND, GMCR, HITK, JAZZ, LULU, MA, PCLN, PSMT, ULTA, WYNN

Normally a bear market rally attempt fizzles out and leads to a short taking opportunity. Taking the short on small caps makes sense to me. I am long GLD at the moment.

1bullseye
09-28-2011, 10:01 AM
Thx Mike. Really appreciate your thoughts and comments.