Jerry Samet
08-23-2011, 11:22 PM
The market has been weak while I was away and after a wedging rally we had a high volume sell off. Today we had a solid rally that qualified as an FTD. The major averages were up between 3 and 4% on higher but not that impressive volume. Strong up days are typical of bear markets, in fact nearly all of the biggest up days in market history have occurred in bear markets. Today's action seems to have been based on hope for good news from the Fed on Friday. Very few quality stocks are in buyable patterns and the three items we look for to confirm FTD's were absent. The %E's are at 34.7% which is well above the range that is associated with successful FTD's. There was also no Eureka and the weekly Coppock isn't showing even a hint of curving. All this points to an FTD with a high probably of failure. The leaders had a strong day, with the leaders index rising 6.18% on higher volume. It is however coming off a very low level and none of the stocks are close to buyable. I would be very skeptical of this market. Jerry