2010 Drawdown

[Charl]

Hi Billy,

Recall that Aug 2010 the pivot confluences also were not "respected" - do you perhaps see any correlation with current "weak" support pivot numbers and the draw downs we had a year ago ?

PS: can't help noticing the confluence of the extreme IWM - MS3/QS3/SS3 numbers and a VWAP anchored at the beging of the uptrend back in March 2009

charl

[Billy]

Hi Billy,

Recall that Aug 2010 the pivot confluences also were not "respected" - do you perhaps see any correlation with current "weak" support pivot numbers and the draw downs we had a year ago ?

PS: can't help noticing the confluence of the extreme IWM - MS3/QS3/SS3 numbers and a VWAP anchored at the beging of the uptrend back in March 2009

charl

Charl,

I think that indeed short term algorithms are mostly driving large players programs during the summer because they hedge their longer term positions. Programs using longer term floor levels are usually back around Labor Day. Hence LT floor confluences prove to be less powerful now as potential support or resistance than during the rest of the year.

Your observation about anchored VWAP from March 2009 is very judicious. But the current reading is closer to YS1 (64.40) than to MS3, QS3, SS3.
Billy
9724

[Rembert]

It's amazing but the average position in IWM since the start of the bull market in 2009 is now at a loss !
SPY is close to that level, QQQ's still have some way to go, might be different with the nasdaq composite.

[Billy]

It's amazing but the average position in IWM since the start of the bull market in 2009 is now at a loss !
SPY is close to that level, QQQ's still have some way to go, might be different with the nasdaq composite.

http://www.alphatrends.net/2011/08/08/vwap-from-2009-low-chart-comments/

[Charl]

Also note that IWM and SPY has closed below the weekly ICHIMOKU cloud for the firstime since the start of the bull market in 2009.QQQ is inside the cloud.