Mousetrap 7/24/2011

[Timothy Clontz]

Position Bought Return Call
BKI 5/31/2011 14.40% Hold
CFI 6/22/2011 25.79% Hold
SE 6/27/2011 4.50% Hold
AWR 7/5/2011 -1.05% Hold
CLH 7/6/2011 5.33% Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 0.37% Buy

This translates to an average annualized return of 92.35%. I mention this, because that's likely to be DRASTICALLY reduced this week, ;-).

That's the trouble with a long-only model. Looks great on an uptick, but on a downtick its goal is just to look "less bad" than the broad market.

The current buy position is GCI, but I expect it to become even more of a "bargain" before the week is through. Hopefully the politicians will stop posturing long enough to keep from destroying themselves. I feel like a spectator caught between Rocky Balboa and Mr. T...

Times like this make me appreciate the Robot even more.

[Timothy Clontz]

Position Date Bought Return Call
BKI 5/31/2011 11.98% Hold
CFI 6/22/2011 22.43% Hold
SE 6/27/2011 3.59% Hold
AWR 7/5/2011 -1.31% Hold
CLH 7/6/2011 5.28% Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 -0.51% Buy

[Timothy Clontz]

Position Date Bought Return Call
BKI 5/31/2011 13.01% Hold
CFI 6/22/2011 17.86% Buy
SE 6/27/2011 2.76% Hold
AWR 7/5/2011 -2.19% Hold
CLH 7/6/2011 3.91% Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 0.00% Hold

[Timothy Clontz]

Position Date Bought Return Call
BKI 5/31/2011 7.81% Hold
CFI 6/22/2011 12.58% Buy
SE 6/27/2011 2.65% Hold
AWR 7/5/2011 -3.53% Hold
CLH 7/6/2011 0.84% Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 -3.67% Hold

The action today was likely less due to disagreements between Republicans and Democrats than between Republicans and the Tea Party. If Boehner cannot pass his own plan in the House, there is nothing for the Senate to even consider, and no negotiation can be possible because there is nothing to negotiate about.

In spite of Reid’s bluff today, the man is a negotiator, and he would make some changes to any House bill and send it back to Boehner for tweaking.

However, Boehner’s bill was unlikely to even pass the House yesterday. Today it will likely pass, albeit after the market closes.

My own holdings were particularly volatile during this mess.

The events happening in DC right now are extremely annoying, but ABSOLUTELY essential. Republicans had a blank check from 2000-2006, and Democrats had one from 2008-2010. The hangover from those two single-party-rule events is painful, but there is no way around it.

For what it’s worth, the stock market has the following political history:

Democrat President, Republican congress – best returns
Republican President, Democrat congress – second best returns
Republican President, Republican congress – second worst returns
Democrat President, Democrat congress – worst returns

Regardless of your party affiliation, the more Boehner and Obama try to steal each other’s thunder, the less they’ll steal your nest egg.

Gridlock is your friend.

[Timothy Clontz]

Position Date Bought Return Call
BKI 5/31/2011 7.46% Hold
CFI 6/22/2011 18.10% Buy
SE 6/27/2011 2.31% Hold
AWR 7/5/2011 -3.53% Hold
CLH 7/6/2011 -0.53% Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 -4.56% Hold

Annualized Return 12.34%