Timothy Clontz
07-10-2011, 12:07 AM
The “Mousetrap” portfolio is half invested now (5 positions out of 10). Current returns are:
5/31 BKI at 25.11 -- up 14.16%
6/22 CFI at 8.29 -- up 20.51%
6/27 SE at 26.36 -- up 4.54%
7/5 AWR at 35.02 -- up .74%
7/6 CLH at 106.30 -- up 2.30%
Although that’s good, it’s important to consider that the market was going up at the time, and this could simply be higher “beta” in those positions. The real test will be on the way back down. The up/down ratio on a portfolio should be better than the up/down ratio for the general market.
Of these positions, SE, CFI, and AWR are in the “buy” positions, while CLH and BKI are holds. I think it’s important to be aware that industry wide money flow is giving strong precedence to two utilities: SE and AWR.
AWR, as a water industry, is especially a concern for the broad market. This is NOT a growth stock by any means. The only reason institutional money flow would be favoring this industry would be a flight to safety.
Since all of my “buy” slots are filled on the “Mousetrap” model, I have no purchases scheduled for Monday. I’ll post an update during the week if a purchase (or sell) presents itself.
As for the general market direction: I'll leave that for the Robot and 20DMF. Long term I don’t presently see a lot of potential for the market. This is a short term timer’s (i.e. Robot) or a stock picker’s (i.e. Mousetrap) market. Index ETFs have more downside risk than upside potential at the moment. That said, there continues to be short term potential on the XLK (technology) ETF, and it has performed rather well since I posted it as a buy some days ago.
For those timing the market,
XLK would still be the preferred long position, or
XLE for a short position (depending on the Robot).
5/31 BKI at 25.11 -- up 14.16%
6/22 CFI at 8.29 -- up 20.51%
6/27 SE at 26.36 -- up 4.54%
7/5 AWR at 35.02 -- up .74%
7/6 CLH at 106.30 -- up 2.30%
Although that’s good, it’s important to consider that the market was going up at the time, and this could simply be higher “beta” in those positions. The real test will be on the way back down. The up/down ratio on a portfolio should be better than the up/down ratio for the general market.
Of these positions, SE, CFI, and AWR are in the “buy” positions, while CLH and BKI are holds. I think it’s important to be aware that industry wide money flow is giving strong precedence to two utilities: SE and AWR.
AWR, as a water industry, is especially a concern for the broad market. This is NOT a growth stock by any means. The only reason institutional money flow would be favoring this industry would be a flight to safety.
Since all of my “buy” slots are filled on the “Mousetrap” model, I have no purchases scheduled for Monday. I’ll post an update during the week if a purchase (or sell) presents itself.
As for the general market direction: I'll leave that for the Robot and 20DMF. Long term I don’t presently see a lot of potential for the market. This is a short term timer’s (i.e. Robot) or a stock picker’s (i.e. Mousetrap) market. Index ETFs have more downside risk than upside potential at the moment. That said, there continues to be short term potential on the XLK (technology) ETF, and it has performed rather well since I posted it as a buy some days ago.
For those timing the market,
XLK would still be the preferred long position, or
XLE for a short position (depending on the Robot).