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Jerry Samet
07-03-2011, 12:42 PM
The market had another good rally on a price basis Friday, with gains of about 1.4% on all the major averages. Volume was light as you would expect on the Friday before a holiday weekend. We have had a good rally in the last couple of weeks and IBD went back to a rally call, saying that maybe June 21 was an FTD after all. I think this shows that our friends at IBD can't figure out this crazy market any better than the rest of us. The leaders rose also with a gain of 1.88% on low volume. Neither the leaders of the market have been able to generate any upside volume in the last two weeks. The leaders index would have been up a bit more but I had to remove LULU due to a data problem with HGS. I will put it back in when the problem is resolved. If June 21 was an FTD it had confirmation. There were two Eureka signals last week, the %E's were a little high but still ok, and the weekly Coppock turned up last week. It was a small turn around but any upside next week will provide confirmation. We are at a bit of a cross roads here. I think that the key now is the late May highs in the major averages. If we can get through them with some conviction we may see higher prices. If on the other hand we roll over at a lower level then a head and shoulders formation will be in place in all the major averages. Next week will be very instructive. Jerry