Outlook June 9, 2011

[Billy]

Make sure to read Pascal’s comments for both robots. The GDX Robot is now in cash and not looking to enter any new position, so let’s quickly examine IWM’s cluster outlook.
The path of least resistance is to the downside and with some growing fear winds in its back, IWM could test the 200-day moving average as early as today.
If a gap down follows the Jobless Claims report, expect some intraday consolidation around MS2 (78.09) and WS2 (77.97), quite similar to the one seen yesterday around WS1 and QS1.
A gap up with some following strength would hint that a short term bottom is possibly in the making around QS1 (79.32). A close at or above 79.32 remains an important required confirmation for the bullish case.
Billy

8701

[ernsttanaka]

Billy,

Looking @ the multi time frame pivots, it seems a first real support for the IWM is 72.06. At that level you have a 19 weighted support.

Do you have one-eye on that level as a goal for the summer dolldrums?

Thanks,

Ernst

[Billy]

8702
Billy,

Looking @ the multi time frame pivots, it seems a first real support for the IWM is 72.06. At that level you have a 19 weighted support.

Do you have one-eye on that level as a goal for the summer dolldrums?

Thanks,

Ernst

Ernst,
The 19 support cluster is computed as follows:
SPP = 6 + QS3 = 5 + YPP = 8
However, except if we see another flash crash, I doubt it is significant yet because it would require another loss of - 8.61% from yesterday's IWM close before July 1st. Indeed SPP and QS3 will be no longer active from July 1st. YPP will only remain and it can of course cluster again with new active levels, but it remains to be seen.
On July 1st, the landscape and road maps will be totally changed with new monthly, quarterly and semester levels. It is still too early to make a valid simulation of the future.
Billy

[Billy]

The bullish scenario prevailed all day. A close above QS1 (79.32) would set up the multi-pivot stage for a follow-through.
The most likely close today is 79.64. How do i come to this? Well, it is simply the average of the most probable 3-day targets of the last 3 days, both long and short, using the robot statistics of the last 3 days.
Last 3-day long targets : 79.30, 80.80, 81.18
Last 3-day short targets: 77.21, 79.52, 79.82
Average target = 79.64
This is another interesting way to use the robot statistics. I have not backtested how often it was correct or pretty close. But it is often very accurate from my recent observations.
A proxy for buy programs activity is the cumulative TICK chart. Today, it looks very similar to the one from last Tuesday. It rose above the 600-minute average before reversing into the close. Let's see how it develops this time. Tuesday only had daily pivots support, while today has the confluence of WS1 and QS1. An absence of reversal into the close will be another clue that QS1 was a dominant reversal target in the large players programs.
Billy

8727

[Billj]

Make sure to read Pascal’s comments for both robots. The GDX Robot is now in cash and not looking to enter any new position, so let’s quickly examine IWM’s cluster outlook.
The path of least resistance is to the downside and with some growing fear winds in its back, IWM could test the 200-day moving average as early as today.
If a gap down follows the Jobless Claims report, expect some intraday consolidation around MS2 (78.09) and WS2 (77.97), quite similar to the one seen yesterday around WS1 and QS1.
A gap up with some following strength would hint that a short term bottom is possibly in the making around QS1 (79.32). A close at or above 79.32 remains an important required confirmation for the bullish case.
Billy

8701
When you say "close at or above 79.32" does that mean at the close of a minute, 30 minute or daily bar?
Is there a way to highlight, bright lights so to speak, a trend change during the day so we won't overlook it buried in a post.

[Billy]

When you say "close at or above 79.32" does that mean at the close of a minute, 30 minute or daily bar?
Is there a way to highlight, bright lights so to speak, a trend change during the day so we won't overlook it buried in a post.

It is only the DAILY close that matters.
You may use your personal seetings to be notified by email of new posts.
Billy