Jerry Samet
02-26-2022, 11:11 AM
The market opened slightly lower yesterday but quickly found a bottom and rallied for most of the remainder of the session. News came out that Putin might be open to peace talks and that caused a big rally. All the major averages finished the day near their intraday trading highs. The New York averages led the way with the SPX gaining 2.24%. The COMPQ and the NDX rallied 1.64% and 1.58% respectively. Volume was lower across the board, as you would expect after the very high volume on Thursday. It fell 24.16% on the Nasd and 23.44% on the New York. Leading stocks rallied as well with the leaders index gaining 2.47% on the day. The index closed near the top of its trading range on lower and below average volume. The market continued Thursday’s reversal after news came out that Putin would agree to hold peace talks. The market rallied hard after this news and closed strong. I find it funny that so many people would jump in based on this report. Anyone who thinks that Putin would agree to anything other than his terms, which would be unacceptable to Ukraine and the West, probably believes in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy. There are tradable rallied in bear markets, but I don’t think we would get one here. If a follow through comes in the next week or two it will likely not be well confirmed. The chances of a successful rally occurring in a bear market that is not confirmed by at least the weekly Coppock are slim. Nothing is certain in the stock market, but I suspect that this upturn in the last two days will not produce a tradable rally. We will have to see how it works out, but jumping in here would be very dangerous. Jerry